Kimberly Clausing, Maurice Obstfeld
Οren Cass’s shallow and selective defense of Donald Trump’s trade policy proposals in The Atlantic misrepresents what economists know about tariffs. Agreed, Trump’s specific ideas—including minimum duties on all imports and the use of tariffs for commercial and foreign policy objectives—are unprecedented. Still, under Trump’s plan, the well-documented costs of tariffs will swamp the far more speculative benefits that Cass touts.
Cass’s main critique is that economists “consider only the costs of tariffs and not the benefits.” Cass imagines potential benefits of tariffs that he calls “externalities.” In his telling, these include fueling a US manufacturing renaissance, leading to higher middle-class wages and more stable families and communities. He asserts that this manufacturing resurgence will promote research, development, and innovation, leading to economy-wide productivity gains.
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