How to make Europe’s incipient recovery durable: End policy uncertainty
Buti, Marco, Padoan, Pier Carlo. The Eurozone is recovering but the revival is fragile – ringed by downside risks. This column argues that three steps – reducing policy uncertainty, repairing the financial system, and creating new investment opportunities – are essential. They could switch the negative confidence-growth feedback loop into a positive one, thus paving the way […]
Political challenges of the macroprudential agenda
Chwieroth, Jeffrey, Danielsson, Jon. Central banks frequently lead the macroprudential policy implementation. The hope is that their credibility in conquering inflation might rub off on macroprudential policy. This column argues the opposite. The fuzziness of the macroprudential agenda and the interplay of political pressures may undermine monetary policy. Πηγή: Voxeu πλήρες κείμενο
Dilemma not Trilemma: The global financial cycle and monetary policy independence
Rey, Hélène. The global financial cycle has transformed the well-known trilemma into a ‘dilemma’. Independent monetary policies are possible if and only if the capital account is managed directly or indirectly. This column argues the right policies to deal with the ‘dilemma’ should aim at curbing excessive leverage and credit growth. A combination of macroprudential […]
A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?
Cavallo, Eduardo, Powell, Andrew. As emerging markets slow, the fear of ‘sudden stops’ in capital flows is rising. This column presents a new taxonomy of Sudden Stops that is founded on the behaviour of gross and net capital flows. The results raise several puzzles. Given continued financial globalisation, how developing and advanced economies can protect themselves […]
The Post-Crisis Global Economy in Three Words
Pisani-Ferry, Jean. Five years have passed since the collapse of the American investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered financial mayhem and marked the onset of the Great Recession. Though the dust may not have fully settled, three catchwords sum up what we have learned so far – and what remains to be done. Πηγή: www.project-syndicate.org πλήρες κείμενο
Why does capital flow from poor to rich countries?
Gros, Daniel. Why does capital flow from poor to rich countries? This column argues that the direction of capital flows makes economic sense given savings behaviour. But the real puzzle is why savings rates are high in poor countries and low in rich ones. Πηγή: www.voxeu.org πλήρες κείμενο
2013 Spillover Report
Five years after the global financial crisis, the severe tensions and risks rooted last year in some of the “Systemic five” (S5)—China, euro area, Japan, United Kingdom, United States––have abated but all five are still operating below potential, i.e., they are not contributing to global activity as much as they might: if they could somehow […]
Whose Economic Reform?
Pisani-Ferry, Jean. Together with fiscal consolidation, structural reform is the new European mantra. International organizations and European Union bodies regard such reform as a prerequisite of economic recovery, growth, and alleviation of the unemployment plague. Πηγή: www.project-syndicate.org πλήρες κείμενο
The Times They are a-Changin’: will (fiscal) history repeat itself?
Cottarelli, Carlo. Recent political and social unrest in some emerging and developing countries may have idiosyncratic features. But they also have a common denominator: a yearning for more equality in incomes, economic self-determination, and political power. Are these developments in seemingly unrelated emerging economies the beginning of a trend? Πηγή: iMFdirect πλήρες κείμενο
Hitting China’s Wall
Krugman, Paul. All economic data are best viewed as a peculiarly boring genre of science fiction, but Chinese data are even more fictional than most. Add a secretive government, a controlled press, and the sheer size of the country, and it’s harder to figure out what’s really happening in China than it is in any […]