Why is the Greek economy collapsing? A simple tale of high multipliers and low exports
Alcidi, Cinzia Gros, Daniel. In an attempt to understand why the Greek economy is collapsing, this Commentary points out two key aspects that are often overlooked – the country’s large multiplier and a bad export performance. When combined with the need for a large fiscal adjustment, these factors help explain how fiscal consolidation in Greece has […]
The probability of Greek exit, revisited
Nordvig, Jens. Fears of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone have subsided, for now. This column attempts to measure the probability of a Greek exit, finding that the changing fortunes of Greek political parties, and the possibility of an early election, mean that the risk of a Greek exit may actually be quite high. […]
Steps but no roadmap towards GEMU – the results of a disappointing summit – Post-Summit Analysis
Emmanouilidis, Janis. The 13-14 December European Council was disappointing as it failed to live up to the expectations raised and the objectives set earlier in the year. EU leaders were not able to agree on a long-term and ambitious roadmap towards the completion of EMU. The EU 27 rather gave the impression that they could take […]
Νίκος Κουτσιαράς: Εθνικές τράπεζες, ενιαία τραπεζική εποπτεία και η νέα ΕΚΤ
Η μεταρρύθμιση του καθεστώτος της Ευρωπαϊκής νομισματικής ένωσης επιχειρείται, βεβαίως, με πολλούς εθνικούς δισταγμούς και επιφυλάξεις – συχνά αντανακλώμενες σε χρονικές μεταθέσεις των τελικών αποφάσεων, ιδίως προκειμένου για τα περισσότερο ευαίσθητα, για την εθνική δημοσιονομική αυτονομία και πολιτική ανεξαρτησία, ζητήματα. Οι μεταρρυθμιστικές πρωτοβουλίες και αποφάσεις έχουν, εξ ορισμού, μακροπρόθεσμο ορίζοντα, άλλοτε, όμως, ευθέως και άλλοτε […]
The Euroless Union?
Eichengreen, Barry. Europe’s crisis has entered a quiet phase, which is no accident. The current period of relative calm coincides with the approach of Germany’s federal election in 2013, in which the incumbent chancellor, Angela Merkel, will be running as the woman who saved the euro. Πηγή: Project Syndicate πλήρες κείμενο
Greece’s Bogus Debt Deal
Mody, Ashoka. The process of official forgiveness of Greek debt has begun. Referred to as “official sector involvement” (OSI), it includes several initiatives aimed at reducing Greece’s debt/GDP ratio to 124% in 2020, from roughly 200% today. Even as the deal was announced, however, newspaper reports suggested that officials recognized that the measures would be […]
Monetary Policy and Banking Supervision: Coordination instead of separation
Beck, Thorsten, Gros, Daniel. Following the June 2012 European Council decision to place the ‘Single Supervisory Mechanism’ (SSM) within the European Central Bank, the general presumption in the policy discussions has been that there should be ‘Chinese walls’ between the supervisory and monetary policy arms of the ECB. The current legislative proposal, in fact, is […]
A budget for Europe’s monetary union
Wolff, Guntram. In a monetary union, national fiscal deficits are of limited help to counteract deep recessions; union-wide support is needed. A common euro-area budget (1) should provide a temporary but significant transfer of resources in case of large regional shocks, (2) would be an instrument to counteract severe recessions in the area as a […]
How to deal with macroeconomic imbalances?
Gros, Daniel. It is plainly apparent that now is the time to make adjustments to the severe macroeconomic imbalances created by the sudden stop in capital flows to the countries in the southern periphery of the eurozone. But crucial questions arise about how to correct the imbalances, how to share the burden of the adjustment […]
How to avoid a double-dip recession in the eurozone
De Grauwe, Paul. This CEPS Commentary argues that the way in which the burden of adjustment to the imbalances in the eurozone is borne almost exclusively by the deficit countries in the periphery produces a deflationary bias in the region as a whole. Against the threat of double-dip recession, Paul De Grauwe asserts that the […]