How to avoid a double-dip recession in the eurozone
De Grauwe, Paul. This CEPS Commentary argues that the way in which the burden of adjustment to the imbalances in the eurozone is borne almost exclusively by the deficit countries in the periphery produces a deflationary bias in the region as a whole. Against the threat of double-dip recession, Paul De Grauwe asserts that the […]
Europe’s Populists at the Gate
Eichengreen, Barry. Is Europe’s crisis over? Investors, policy analysts, and even officials are quietly beginning to suggest that this might be the case. The euro has strengthened by nearly 10% against the dollar since European Central Bank President Mario Draghi vowed on July 26 to do “whatever it takes” to hold the currency together. Πηγή: […]
The Greek debt trap: an escape plan
Darvas, Zsolt. Without corrective measures, Greek public debt will exceed 190 percent of GDP, instead of peaking at the anyway too-high target ratio of 167 percent of GDP of the March 2012 financial assistance programme. The rise is largely due to a negative feedback loop between high public debt and the collapse in GDP, and […]
The Eurozone breakup debate: Uncertainty still reigns
Nordvig, Jens. Conversations about the breakup of the Eurozone are changing. This column argues that an ‘avoid breakup at all costs’ dogmatism may not be a prudent view. Getting good data may well be difficult, but any arguments about the cost of a Eurozone breakup must be compared to the ongoing cost of the status […]
Crisis and public support for the euro
Roth, Felix, Jonung, Lars & Nowak-Lehmann, Felicitas. The Eurozone crisis has meant slow growth, rising unemployment, and social unrest. This column gauges the impact of all this on European citizens‘ opinions about the euro and EU institutions. Using Eurobarometer surveys, the authors find that, within the Eurozone, the crisis has only marginally lowered support for the […]
Economic recovery requires a better deal for labour
Tilford, Simon. Unless labour receives a larger share of the pie, Europe’s economic recovery will prove elusive and popular hostility to markets will grow. Πηγή: CER πλήρες κείμενο
The Other Financial Crisis
El-Erian, Mohamed. Two variants of financial crisis continue to wreak havoc on Western economies, fueling joblessness and poverty: the one that we read about regularly in newspapers, involving governments around the world; and a less visible one at the level of small and medium-size businesses and households. Until both are addressed properly, the West will […]
An Optimistic Case for the Euro
Feldstein, Martin. The prospects for the euro and the eurozone remain uncertain. But recent events at the European Central Bank, in Germany, and in global financial markets, make it worthwhile to consider a favorable scenario for the common currency’s future. Πηγή: Project Syndicate πλήρες κείμενο
External Imbalances in the Euro Area
Chen, Ruo, Milesi-Ferretti, Gian-Maria & Tressel, Thierry. The paper examines the extent to which current account imbalances of euro area countries are related to intra-euro area factors and to external trade shocks. Πηγή: IMF πλήρες κείμενο
The known unknowns and the unknown unknowns of the EMU
Pisani-Ferry, Jean. Extensive prior research on the economics of European monetary union highlighted some potential risks (the known unknowns) but overlooked others (the unknown unknowns). Asymmetries among participating countries, the potentially destabilising character of a one-size-fits all monetary policy, the weakness of adjustment mechanisms, the lack of incentives for fiscal discipline, the possibility of sovereign […]