For decades, US-Iran nuclear negotiations have been trapped by two problems: time inconsistency, since the US can always reimpose sanctions after Iran gives up its stock of uranium and associated hardware; and political debt overhang, the accumulation of past promises to core constituencies that make any narrow deal insufficient. This column describes how the twin blockades of the Strait of Hormuz may have unexpectedly changed this dynamic. By giving both sides more symmetric leverage, the blockades create the possibility of a time-consistent agreement linking the nuclear issue, sanctions relief, and uninterrupted navigation. Embedding large-scale investment in civilian infrastructure and the oil and gas industry could make the deal large enough for both sides to claim victory. China is uniquely positioned to help broker such a compromise.
Πηγή: Voxeu