Escaith, Hubert, Keck, Alexander, Nee, Coleman & Teh, Robert.
The consequences of the tragic disaster in Japan are many. This column examines the trade effects. It suggests that Japanese exports will fall by 0.5–1.6% and its imports will rise by 0.4–1.3%. Despite the devastation in Japan, the effects on global trade will be relatively small.
The Tohoku earthquake and tsunami that struck the northeast coast of Japan on 11 March has created an enormous human and ecological disaster. In addition to its direct economic cost to Japan, the disaster could potentially have important implications for the rest of the world, not only because of the sheer size of the Japanese economy, but also as a result of the country’s pivotal role in the global supply chains that form the back-bone of today’s international trade in manufactures (Altomonte and Ottaviano 2009).
What are the foreseeable consequences of the catastrophe for international trade? There are two complementary approaches to tackling this question.
Πηγή: Voxeu