Πληθωρισμός: όροι, θεωρία, ιστορία   

Αντιγράφω επιστολή αναγνώστη –πολύ γνωστού επαγγελματία και ειδήμονος περί τα νομισματικά– με τίτλο “Forget ‘forecast’, inflation ‘outlook’ is a better word”, η οποία δημοσιεύθηκε στην Φαϊνάνσιαλ Τάιμς της 3 Μάϊου 2024. Η πλουραλιστική προσέγγιση του πληθωρισμού, στην θεωρία και στην πράξη, είναι πράγματι επιβεβλημένη.

“Martin Wolf appropriately called the inflation forecasts on which central banks base monetary policy a disaster (Opinion, April 29). This raises two questions. First, can we continue to rely on a monetary policy strategy that puts unreliable inflation forecasts at its heart? Second, why have we erred in inflation forecasts and what can we do about it? My answer is no to the first question as long as we have not answered the second. My answer to the second question is that we should give up trying to find the ‘true’ inflation model valid everywhere and any time.

Instead, we should acknowledge that in economic history, different explanations of inflation under different circumstances and in different times have been useful. We should use this insight to provide an inflation outlook by choosing the most appropriate model for the circumstances we are experiencing.

I prefer the word ‘outlook’ to ‘forecast’ as in my view economics is hardly capable of making precise numerical forecasts with a sufficient degree of reliability.”

Thomas Mayer

Founding Director, Flossbach von Storch Research Institute

Cologne, Germany

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