Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates

Claudio Borio, Piti Disyatat, Mikael Juselius, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul. Prevailing explanations of the decline in real interest rates since the early 1980s are premised on the notion that real interest rates are driven by variations in desired saving and investment. But based on data stretching back   […]

Brahmin Left vs Merchant Right: Rising Inequality and the Changing Structure of Political Conflict

Thomas Piketty. Using post-electoral surveys from France, Britain and the US, this paper documents a striking long-run evolution in the structure of political cleavages. In the 1950s-1960s, the vote for left-wing (socialist-labour-democratic) parties was associated with lower education and lower   […]

International trade under attack: what strategy for Europe?

Sébastien Jean, Philippe Martin, André Sapir. This Policy Contribution analyses the economic consequences of a full-scale trade war. The US position, focusing on bilateral trade imbalances presumably resulting from unbalanced trade policies, is seriously threatening the multilateral trading system. The authors estimate   […]

It’s Baaack, Twenty Years Later

Paul Krugman. The background: In the late 1990s some U.S.-based economists began to grow disturbed about the economic troubles facing Japan. The source of our unease wasn’t, to be honest, mainly concern for Japan per se, or even about the   […]

A cross-country database of fiscal space

Ayhan Kose, Sergio Kurlat, Franziska Ohnsorge, Naotaka Sugawara. This paper presents a comprehensive cross-country database of fiscal space, broadly defined as the availability of budgetary resources for a government to service its financial obligations. The database covers up to 200   […]

The Rise and Fall of Keynesian Ideas During the Great Recession

Abraham Newman, Andrew Baker, Elizabeth Popp Berman, Paul Krugman, Stephen K. Nelson, Henry Farrell, John Quiggin. What is the role of expertise in global politics? The anti-establishment wave rolling over the United States and Europe makes this research question even   […]

Towards a More Resilient Global Economy

This report contains the Executive Summary of the proceedings of a high-level conference organised jointly by the German Federal Ministry of Finance and Deutsche Bundesbank, in cooperation with CEPS, on the occasion of Germany’s presidency of the G20, which runs   […]

IMF Fiscal Monitor 2017

Global economic activity is picking up with a long-awaited cyclical recovery in investment, manufacturing, and trade, according to Chapter 1 of this World Economic Outlook. World growth is expected to rise from 3.1 percent in 2016 to 3.5 percent in 2017   […]

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management

Cristiano Cantore, Giovanni Melina, Joseph G Pearlman, Paul L Levine. The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or   […]

Should Unconventional Monetary Policies Become Conventional?

Dominic Quint, Pau Rabanal. The large recession that followed the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09 triggered unprecedented monetary policy easing around the world. Most central banks in advanced economies deployed new instruments to affect credit conditions and to provide liquidity at   […]