William Nordhaus and the costs of climate change

Kenneth Gillingham William Nordhaus of Yale University has been jointly awarded the 2018 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Paul Romer for ‘integrating climate change into long-run macroeconomic analysis’. This column, written by a co-author and Yale colleague, outlines how   […]

Subsidising growth: An argument for pro-business policies in emerging markets

Oleg Itskhoki, Benjamin Moll. From a neoclassical perspective, export promotion and comparative advantage policies are unambiguously detrimental. This column extends the standard growth model with financial frictions to explore how such policies affect a country’s development trajectory. Results show that the   […]

Understanding (the lack of) German public investment

Alexander Roth, Guntram Wolff. An array of data suggests that there is a general lack of investment by all branches of the German government, despite running budget surpluses for several years. This blog post plots the progression of the public investment   […]

Demographics and long-run growth

Thomas Cooley, Espen Henriksen. Demographic change represents an important contributing factor to the slowdown of long-run growth. This column explores some of the channels through which this occurs and how the effects of demographic change can be mitigated. Policies that   […]

Productivity and secular stagnation in the intangible economy

Jonathan Haskel, Stian Westlake. Many economists have suggested that slowing technical innovation is behind the secular stagnation and slowdown in total factor productivity growth that have plagued many advanced economies since the Global Crisis. This column, first published in January   […]

The declining share of manufacturing jobs

Oya Celasun, Bertrand Gruss. The manufacturing sector is believed to play a unique role as a catalyst for productivity growth and income convergence, and as a provider of well-paid jobs for less-skilled workers. This column argues, however, that the declining   […]

Shining a light on PPP measurement

Maxim Pinkovskiy, Xavier Sala-i-Martin. Purchasing power parities have been one of the successes of economic measurement. This column asks whether these adjustments are a better measure of the underlying economy than market exchange rates, whether our successive estimates of PPP   […]

Structural change and the productivity slowdown

Georg Duernecker, Berthold Herrendorf, Akos Valentinyi. Baumol argued that structural change may lead to a productivity slowdown due to a reallocation of production to service industries with low productivity growth. This column uses a new framework to estimate the effects   […]

The upheaval Italy needs

Jean Pisani-Ferry While Italy remains without a new government, it would be foolish to believe that a country where anti-system parties won 55% of the popular vote will continue to behave as if nothing had happened. But political upheavals sometime   […]

Is Europe’s Productivity Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Bart van Ark, Klaas de Vries and Kirsten Jäger. The global economic and fi nancial crisis left the European economy in dire straits for almost a decade between 2008 and 2016. Despite the recent growth strengthening, which has brought average   […]