The gender unemployment gap

Stefania Albanesi, Aysegul Sahin. The gender unemployment gap which had persisted in the US until the early 1980s disappeared after 1983 (except during recessions, when unemployment among men has always exceeded that among women). This column argues that the convergence   […]

German wages, the Phillips curve and migration in the euro area

Guntram Wolff. This post studies why wages in Germany have not borne strong increases despite a relatively strong labour market. I list four reasons why announcing the death of the Phillips curve – the negative relationship between unemployment and wage   […]

Low inflation for longer

Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco. The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters supports the ECB’s view that inflation in the Eurozone will pick up and will be back within the central bank’s target range in 2019.  This column   […]

Income Convergence in the EU: A tale of two speeds

Cinzia Alcidi, Jorge Núñez Ferrer, Mattia Di Salvo, Roberto Musmeci and Marta Pilati. Economic convergence refers to the process in which relatively poorer countries (or regions) grow faster than relatively richer ones, thereby allowing the former to catch up with   […]

The Soviet economy, 1917-1991: Its life and afterlife

Mark Harrison. Russia’s Soviet era was distinguished not by economic growth or human development, but by the use of the economy to build national power. On the centenary of the Bolshevik revolution of 1917, this column shows that while the   […]

International value-added linkages in development accounting

Alejandro Cuñat, Robert Zymek. A large portion of international income differences remains poorly understood. It is traditionally attributed to cross-country differences in total factor productivity, which cannot be measured directly. This column argues that the importance of total factor productivity   […]

Tight monetary policy is not the answer to weak productivity growth

Maurice Obstfeld, Romain Duval. The widespread and persistent productivity slowdown witnessed since the Global Crisis had already begun in advanced and low-income countries prior to the crisis. This column argues that the crisis amplified the slowdown by creating ‘productivity hysteresis’,   […]

The rate of return on everything

Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick, Alan Taylor. The rate of return on capital plays a pivotal role in shaping current macroeconomic debates. This column presents findings from a new dataset covering returns of major asset classes in   […]

Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice

Barry Eichengreen, Arnaud Mehl, Livia Chiţu. Economists have provided detailed analyses of the economic basis of international currency status, but they have paid less attention to the geopolitical underpinnings.  This column sheds light on the geopolitical premium enjoyed by the   […]

Black Monday: Thirty years after

Stephen Cecchetti, Kim Schoenholtz. Black Monday has been referred to as the first contemporary global financial crisis. This column reviews key aspects of the 1987 crash and discusses the subsequent steps taken to improve the resilience of the financial system.   […]