Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question

Francesco Corsello, Stefano Neri, Alex Tagliabracci.

This paper shows that long-term inflation expectations have become de-anchored from the ECB Governing Council’s inflation aim. The long-term expectations in the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters have not returned to the levels that prevailed before the 2013-14 period of disinflation, and their distribution is still skewed towards lower inflation levels. Moreover, long-term expectations have become sensitive to short-term ones and to negative inflation surprises. Forecasters who participated in most of the surveys are the most responsive to short-term developments in inflation.

Πηγή: Banca d’Italia

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